G4S Risk Consulting Q3 2015 Forecast

July 03 2015

The G4S Risk Analysis team has released the Global Forecast for Q3 2015

Once again, it focuses on the key thematic threats faced by countries around the world in the coming three months. These include militancy, political and civil unrest, health and disease, terrorism, economic risk and the impact of major geopolitical developments.

Militancy remains a key theme of our forecast for the coming quarter. Islamic State (IS)-related activity continues to be reported in Europe and further arrests across the continent are expected throughout Q3, with the associated risk of a terrorist attack. Recent events in France and Tunisia amply demonstrate the potency of the threat just days before the UK commemorates the tenth anniversary of the 7/7 terrorist attack in London.

The risk of further attacks is fueled by the resurgence of territorial victories by IS in the Middle East, where affiliates continue to capitalize on gaps in state control and chaotic security environments. The threat posed in Africa by Somalia’s al-Shabaab and Nigeria’s Boko Haram appears to be in decline following joint military campaigns, but in Asia, the fighting season in Afghanistan is set to reach its peak in Q3. Meanwhile, to the west, fears mount in the CIS region over the potency of the IS ideology.

Pressure on national borders and international institutions stems not only from insurgents, but can also originate from economic risk. The ongoing fiscal crisis in Greece and the potential for the country’s “Grexit” from the Eurozone casts doubt over how the EU may respond to an unprecedented situation in the coming months.

Political unrest is another global theme in Q3 with many African nations set to hold elections, or leaders seeking to amend constitutions. Unrest in Burundi is unsettling neighboring countries as a result of the numbers of displaced people, but its example is unlikely to deter incumbent leaders set on holding onto power. In Nigeria, however, the outlook is good despite looming fiscal tightening.

In Latin America, civil unrest will remain a major concern in Venezuela and political tensions are set to rise ahead of Argentina’s presidential elections in October. In Russia and the CIS, the separatist insurgency in eastern Ukraine is growing steadily more desperate. In Asia, though the momentum of Hong Kong’s pro-democracy movement has slowed, there remains a risk of a return to street protests.

One of the most dynamic geopolitical developments currently emerging concerns the South China Sea (SCS) and the disputing claims to its islands and waters. These are set to shape regional relationships and tensions in Asia, but political spats are unlikely to escalate into armed confrontations at present.

Meanwhile, health and disease remains a core theme in some parts of the world. A threat to health is posed in Africa in the coming quarter, where populations face Ebola, cholera and meningitis, while an outbreak of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) virus is cause for concern in South Korea, Thailand and China.

These are the core risks that we believe will unfold over the coming quarter. We hope that the Global Forecast series continues to inform your assessment of risk.

Download: G4S Risk Consulting Q3 2015 Forecast (PDF 1.1kb)

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