G4S Risk Consulting Global Forecast 2015 Q4

October 13 2015

This report focuses on the key thematic threats over the coming three months along with insight by subject matter experts


Key issues include the increasing global threat of militancy as Islamic State (IS) continues to draw recruits and allegiances from established militant groups in the Middle East, Africa and Asia. The perceived threat encompasses the wider world as nations remain concerned over the threat posed by returning fighters and self-radicalized individuals. 

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East and poor governance in some African nations is displacing thousands of people, triggering one of the greatest movement of people into Europe for decades. The influx of refugees and migrants will continue to feature heavily in Q4 as states protect their national interests at the expense of others.

Beyond the Middle East, rebel groups in the Americas and Asia are becoming increasingly brazen in their bid to win concessions from fragile governments, with violence expected to continue into Q4. Fragility has also been seen in Europe as the economies of the union face increasing pressure domestically. Besides the economy, there remains concern in Europe over the intentions of Russia towards Ukraine.

While the threat of Ebola has eased in West Africa, the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) virus continues to pose a health risk in the Middle East and in countries from where the majority of Saudi’s migrant workers and business visitors come from.

Political accountability continues to play a role in change and is increasingly a key trigger of unrest. Several Latin American and Asian countries are witnessing a surge in protests and resignation demands over corruption, incompetence and frustration at a lack of services. With key elections due in several European, African and American states, political instability, protests and uncertainty will feature prominently throughout the last quarter of 2015.

Download: Global Forecast 2015 Q4 (PDF 6mb)

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